How it works
Observed signals in. A defensible decision out.
ShopScout does not predict sales. It organizes what can be observed, scores it consistently and shows the reasoning so you can disagree with it.
The workflow
Four steps, repeated
Collect
Signals enter through provider adapters. Each stored record keeps its provider, timestamp, source type, confidence level and whether it is demonstration data.
Normalize
Raw readings are mapped onto documented 0–100 curves so a 200% momentum reading and a $34 price band can be compared on the same scale.
Score
Normalized components are weighted, summed and passed through a fixed calibration curve to produce the published 0–100 Opportunity Score.
Classify
A separate rule set assigns the lifecycle stage and a saturation risk reading, so a high score in a crowded market is never mistaken for an open window.
Opportunity Score
Seven components, published weights
The weights below are the shipped defaults. They are stored as configuration, versioned with the score, and a super admin can adjust them. Nothing about the calculation is random.
Momentum
25%
Trailing 30-day change in the observed demand index.
Seller competition
20%
Scored inversely — lower observed competition contributes more.
Margin potential
20%
Estimated gross contribution at the observed median price.
Price stability
10%
How tight the working interquartile price band is.
Seller growth
10%
Also inverse — sellers arriving quickly closes the window.
Creator activity
10%
Volume and growth of creators publicly mentioning the product.
Product maturity
5%
How recently ShopScout first detected the product.
Lifecycle
Six stages, assigned by rule
Stages are evaluated in a fixed order and the first matching rule wins. The thresholds are published, so two people looking at the same product always see the same stage.
- 01
EMERGING
Few tracked sellers while observed demand is starting to move.
- 02
RISING
Demand is climbing steadily and competition is still moderate.
- 03
BREAKOUT
Demand is accelerating sharply while seller competition remains below saturation.
- 04
MAINSTREAM
Established activity with a busy, competitive seller base.
- 05
SATURATED
High seller competition alongside slowing demand growth.
- 06
COOLING
Observed demand is declining from its recent peak.
Language we use
Precise words, on purpose
What we say
- • Observed activity
- • Estimated momentum
- • Seller activity and seller competition
- • Public engagement signals
- • Estimated price and potential margin
- • Opportunity score and trend signal
What we avoid
- • “Sales” for anything we did not receive from a permitted source
- • Guaranteed revenue or guaranteed profit
- • Implying a product is certain to succeed
- • Presenting demonstration data as production data
- • Precision that the underlying evidence does not support
Walk through it with real screens
The public demo shows the full analysis view for a fictional breakout product, including the score history and the verdict.